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Abstract
This paper assesses the impact of an EU-wide policy to expand grassland area and increase carbon
sequestration in soils. The paper uses the economic Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact
(CAPRI) model which represents the EU Agriculture by 2,450 mathematical programming farm type
models in combination with the biogeochemistry model CENTURY which determines the carbon
sequestration at a high resolution level. Both models are linked at the NUTS3 level using the location
information in the Farm Accounting Data Network. We simulated a grassland premium such that
farmers increase grassland by 5% cost efficiently, whereas we assumed that farmers with lower costs
can contribute more. Our findings are that the GHG mitigation potential and costs depend on carbon
sequestration rates, the land market and the induced land use changes, and the regional agricultural
production structure. The overall net effect in Europe simulated with the model is a reduction of 4.3
Mio t CO2e (equivalents) when converting 2.9 Mio ha into grassland. A premium was calculated so
that farmers increase grassland voluntary. It amounts on average to 238 EUR/ha, summing up to a
total cost of 417 Mio EUR. The net abatement costs are based on the premium payments and account
on average 97 EUR/t CO2e. Substantial carbon sequestration (28% of the total sequestration) can be
achieved already with 50 EUR/t CO2e. The carbon sequestration would be most effective in regions
in France, Italy and Spain, the Netherlands and Germany. Larger farms and farm types specialized in
cereals and protein crops, mixed field cropping, granivores and the mixed crops-livestock farming
have the highest potential to relatively low costs.