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Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies.

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