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Abstract

This paper examines the volatility of daily returns of spot prices of Arabica Coffee through conditional variance models, also called heteroskedasticity models. The data used in the analysis refers to the January 3, 2000 to June 15, 2012 period. The empirical results show reactions of persistency and asymmetry in the variance of their returns, in other words, both good and bad news differently impacts on the volatility of returns according to the EGARCH (1.1) and TARCH (1.1) models. However, from the standpoint of performing predictions, the model that best adapted heteroskedasticity data was EGARCH (1.1) with t - Student's distribution. The coffee market presents strong evidence of such result, since the supply shock yields increases in price levels of the commodity. The empirical results suggest the need of proper strategic instruments of hedging in view of the accentuated shock persistency in Arabic Coffee price volatility returns.

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