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Abstract

This study used a partial equilibrium model focusing on U.S. agriculture to investigate the climate change implications for U.S. livestock production. Climate change impacts on crop productivity, grazing land productivity, and livestock animals’ biophysical growth were factored into the model to examine the market equilibrium changes under alternative climate change scenarios. Results suggest that the U.S. livestock sector would be negatively influenced by climate change, with meat and milk prices increasing and exports decreasing. Livestock producers would expand the use of grazing and raise more animals to meet market demand given reduced productivity per head. Profit margins for meat and milk production would however decline due to increases in input prices than more than outweigh the gains from higher output prices.

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