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Abstract

This study attempts to investigate the effects of exchange rate, soybean price, and ocean freight costs on import demand for U.S. grain with forward-futures markets. The focus is on soybeans. The panel data cover the major exporting markets for U.S. soybeans over the last decade. China and Mexico are analyzed as two specific case analyses excluded from the panel data analysis. Furthermore, the bilateral data of Brazilian exported soybeans to its exporting markets with the same procedures are employed as comparisons with U.S. The effects of these three market volatilities, exchange rate, soybeans price, and ocean freight cost for the U.S. and Brazilian models have differences comparing with empirical results.

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