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Abstract

A new method for measuring trade potential from border effects is developed and applied to manufactured trade between the old fifteen European Union (EU) members and twelve Central and East European (CEE) economies. Border effects are estimated with three theoretically compatible trade specifications, and much larger trade potentials are obtained than predicted by usual trade potential models. Even after a decade of regional trade liberalization, the integration of CEE and EU economies is two to three times weaker than intra-EU integration, revealing a large potential for East-West European trade.

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