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Abstract

High Yield Genetically Modified Wheat (HOSUT) HOSUT lines are an innovation in wheat breeding based on biotechnology with an incremental yield potential of ca. 28% compared to conventional wheat varieties. We apply the real option concept of Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) to do an ex-ante assessment of the socioeconomic potential of HOSUT lines for Germany. We analyze the cost and benefits to farmer and society within two scenarios. Our results of our scenario calculation indicate that not authorizing HOSUT lines is correct if German society values the possible total irreversible costs of this technology to be between €12.04 and €10.02 per citizen or more.

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