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Abstract
Travel demand forecasting is a major tool to assist decision makers in transportation planning.
While the conventional four-step trip-based approach is the dominant method to perform travel
demand analysis, behavioral advances have been made in the past decade. This paper proposes and
applies an enhancemnt to the four-step travel demand analysis model called Sub-TAZ. Furthermore,
as an initial step toward activity-based models, a TRANSIMS Track-1 approach is implemented
utilizing a detailed network developed in Sub-TAZ approach. The conventional four-step, Sub-TAZ,
and TRANSIMS models were estimated in a small case study for Fort Meade, Maryland, with zonal
trip tables. The models were calibrated and validated for the base year (2005), and the forecasted
results for the year (2010) were compared to actual ground counts of traffic volume and speed. The
study evaluated the forecasting ability of TRANSIMS versus the conventional and enhanced fourstep
models and provided critical observations concerning strategies for the further implementation
of TRANSIMS.