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Abstract

This report evaluates the United States and world corn and soybean markets for the 2014-2024 period using the Global Corn and Soybean Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather conditions, and technological change. Corn-based ethanol production has influenced the United States corn industry. However, since 2010 U.S. ethanol production has remained near the 14 billion gallon level. Changes in Federal fuel mandates could significantly impact the world corn market. Under the current assumptions in the model, corn price is expected to slowly increase to $4.20 per bushel. Chinese soybean imports are the leading factor influencing the world soybean market. China currently imports 65% of the soybeans traded in the world market, and that is expected to increase by another 37% by 2024. Major exporters will continue to be the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. However, Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase exports while U.S. exports will remain at the current level. Soybean prices are expected to slowly increase to $9.79/bushel over the time period.

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