Some possible scenarios of Polish agri-food trade development until 2015 were presented in the paper. Global Trade Analysis Project (GtaP), the computable general equilibrium model was used in the research. Simulation-based analysis was carried out in four variants differing in the level of the reduction of customs tariffs and referring respectively to: the position of the european commission of 28 october 2005, motions of G-20 countries and the United States of america as well as the case, when the liberalisation of agricultural trade does not progress. it was shown that the increase of liberalisation tendencies in the world agricultural trade may lead to the decrease of export value and the increase of the value of agri-food import to/from Poland, and in consequence to the deterioration of the trade balance value. But it needs to be stressed that by 2015 it probably will not pose any significant threat to the positive foreign turnover balance in the Polish agri-food sector.


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