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Abstract

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the effects of price support programs and stocks on price dynamics and price volatility. Considering a price support program as a censoring mechanism, market prices are specified as a dynamic Tobit model with time varying volatility. The model is applied to the U.S. nonfat dry milk market to examine the impact of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility in the presence of private and public stocks. The econometric results show how the price support program and stocks (both private and public) affect expected price and price volatility. They document the role of stocks in reducing price volatility.

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