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Abstract
Considerable resources must be allocated for fulfilling the Habitat Directive and the question
of optimal allocation is as important as it is difficult. In the present study, we estimate the
expected species coverage of three non-probabilistic strategies: i) a maximum selected area
strategy, ii) a hotspot selection strategy, and iii) a minimising cost strategy, and one
probabilistic strategy a maximum expected coverage strategy. We show that the optimal
network changes considerably with strategies. Thus, the study provides insights which may
guide conservation authorities on how to target their actions so that they accomplish the most
with limited budgets, while acknowledging the uncertainty of species presence. We finally
discuss how welfare economic evaluations of conservation targets could be included in such
conservation policy analysis.