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Abstract
In the context of (a) stability in domestic maize production, (b) a significant divergence
between import and export parity prices for maize, and (c) random variability in world maize prices,
Eastern and Southern African governments have for many years attempted to reduce the instability in
domestic maize prices. However, governments face a trade-off between the fiscal costs of price stabilization
and the degree of price variability allowed. This paper presents a dynamic stochastic simulation model that
not only explores the nature of this trade-off, but also determines optimal government policies for
domestic target prices and domestic target levels of stock in order to minimize the expected fiscal costs of
maintaining given degrees of price stability.