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Abstract

Economic optimization of silvicultural strategies is usually based maximization of (expected) present value, prices and costs being based on historical information. However, in some cases forest owners may have strong opinions regarding the character of future timber markets, conflicting with the use of historical price information. For example, a forest owner may expect wood quality to become much more important than it is today. Costs can often be observed to vary less than sales prices of timber and, therefore, if the focus is on the wood quality offered by various silvicultural alternatives and historical price information is considered invalid, it may be a reasonable alternative to compare strategies using estimates of production cost and product quality. In this paper such measures are used to identify the most robust and efficient silvicultural strategies, i.e. strategies forming a frontier where products of a given quality are produced at minimum costs and are thus most likely to prove profitable. However, while the method may lead to robust and quite efficient strategies it does not ensure welfare maximization.

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