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Abstract
Highly subsidized bread prices financed partially through wheat aid and overvalued
currency have stimulated rapid growth in wheat consumption in Sudan at the expense of other staple
grains such as sorghum and millet. Inefficient production methods and the resultant low wheat yields
have caused domestic supply to lag behind demand. Faced by serious foreign exchange shortages, severe
internal and external imbalances, and reduced availability of food aid, Sudan could not sustain dependence
on external sources to bridge the growing wheat gap. Given the political difficulties associated with
managing demand, the government has chosen to promote local production. Research results showing high
potential gains in wheat yield under improved crop management also contributed to the choice of the
supply strategy. A dynamic multi-market model was developed and used to evaluate alternative supplypromoting
and demand-control strategies. Competition with alternative productive uses of the country's
scarce resources and substitution between wheat and other cereal grains in consumption were analysed.
The impact of the various policies on net exports, food security, and the budget is measured and compared.
Results of policy analysis indicate the significant contribution of production efficiency, reduced consumer
subsidies, and elimination of relative price distortions to higher self-sufficiency and lower internal and
external deficits.