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Abstract

A world net trade model is used to study the consequences of changes in meat consumption patterns in China. Results suggest that such changes would considerably depress world grain prices, especially those for maize and rice. The study also shows that grain consumption requirements in China would fall by 8 percent and China would improve its agricultural balance of trade by $2,000 million. The study concludes that while self-sufficiency in grains may improve with consumption realignment, there would be real income losses because of the consumption distortions introduced.

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