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Abstract
A number of writers contend that rising per capita incomes will reduce birth
rates and solve problems of high population growth in developing countries (see,
for example, Clark and Simon). This contention is attractive because family
planning programmes that may conflict with some religious and ethical values
need not be implemented. But the contention is dangerous if it is wrong. Even
if developing countries temporarily achieve per capita income gains, failure of
such gains to retard population growth can eventually offset advances in total
income and relegate developing countries to low per capita incomes and
undernutrition for years to come.
The purpose of this paper is to test empirically the null hypothesis that the
population growth rate is not influenced by the per capita income growth rate.
This hypothesis has been addressed in the past on both deductive and empirical
grounds. Microeconomic theoretical analysis suggests that higher family income
results in higher fertility rates (Becker). Some empirical evidence supports this
conclusion (Adelman). However, other empirical studies report negative income
elasticities of fertility (Ben-Porath, for example).