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Abstract

Genetically-modified (GM) rice is an important technology surrounded with controversy and uncertainty, hence it warrants more in-depth analysis. While GM rice is considered by its supporters as having promising potential, many still remain passionately against its use. This study assesses the impacts of GM rice commercialization on the global rice market. We use the Arkansas Global Rice Model (AGRM) and the RICEFLOW model to provide stochastic and dynamic analyses. Scenarios of adoption, diffusion and acceptance of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) rice by Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the Philippines are compared against baseline projections. The results focus on world trade, world and domestic prices, resource savings, domestic production, consumption, and stocks. Bt rice adoption has the potential to significantly impact the global and national rice economies. Total rice trade, international price, and domestic prices decline as global rice production, consumption, and stocks expand.

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