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Abstract

Poverty has been intractable because policies and programmes are based on static poverty analysis in Nigeria. There is the need for a forward looking approach (vulnerability to poverty) to be adopted in poverty analysis, hence this study. This study investigated the vulnerability to poverty across geopolitical zones in rural Nigeria, using the 2004 NLSS data. The result of the 3-Stage Feasible Generalized Least Squares showed that at the standard vulnerability threshold of 0.5, vulnerability to poverty (VP) was highest in North-east Nigeria (71.0%) and lowest in the Southwest (28.8%). Male headed households (59.8%) were more vulnerable to poverty than their female counterpart (43.9%). The consumption variance index is 0.0326, 0.0481 and 0.0373 in South-south, South-east and South-west which is higher than the national average of 0.0284. While the mean consumption index is 0.0195, 0.0228 and 0.0119 in the North-east, North-west and North-central lower than the national average of 0.0585. Rural households’ vulnerability to poverty varied across the geopolitical zones in Nigeria with the northern part been worse off.

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