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Abstract

Citrus production represents the only livelihood source for many families in Lattakia region. Citrus farmers are not informed about expected prices. This information is crucial to make business decisions. For the farmers is necessary to take into account the spatial and temporal arbitrage of citrus harvest and storage, which may improve citrus farmer’s position in marketing chain and reduce the influence of intermediaries. The aim of the paper is to verify using of SARIMA models as a tool of Agricultural Marketing Information System for citrus price forecasting in Lattakia region, R. A. Syria. The SARIMA model were tested for citrus wholesale prices prediction at Lattakia market in the paper. SARIMA model was applied on the empirical data, obtained from the actual Marketing Information System in the Lattakia Region. Results showed that SARIMA model (2,1,0) (1,0,1)12 is suitable for seasonal prices prediction. This method is suitable to be part of AMIS. The data was processed in software Minitab.

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