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Abstract

Multiple tools, including surveys, exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, and cross-impact analysis were employed to identify likely scenarios for the agri-food system in 2030. A principal finding of the research is that global warming is perceived as almost inevitable and will lead to major changes in global food production, processing, and trade. However, the dynamic nature of the food chain offers many possibilities to mitigate the negative supply system impacts of global warming through efficiencies gained by increasing firm concentration in the agri-food sector through the application of biotechnology, or adaptations in local food production.

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