Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin

The prolonged drought from 2006–07 to 2008–09 in south-eastern Australia presented severe difficulties for dry-land and irrigation farmers in the southern Murray-Darling basin. A dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (TERMH2O) is used to estimate the economy-wide small region impacts during and after drought. Drought reduces real GDP in some small regions by up to 20 per cent. Irrigation water trading and farm factor movements alleviate losses. The drought results in an estimated 6000 jobs being lost across the southern basin. Depressed farm investment during drought results in farm capital not returning to baseline levels after drought. Consequently, job numbers in 2017–18 remain 1500 below forecast in the southern basin.


Issue Date:
2011-09
Publication Type:
Journal Article
DOI and Other Identifiers:
Record Identifier:
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/186955
PURL Identifier:
http://purl.umn.edu/186955
Published in:
55, 3
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Page range:
342-359
Total Pages:
18




 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2019-08-29

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