Paul Johnson, the renowned historian, ends his book "A History of the Modern World" with the following statement: "A prime discovery of modern times is that reason plays little part in our affairs." This by way 'of introduction serves to remind us to be humble when trying to predict the possible outcome of various forces which will have a major influence on future events. One way of increasing the accuracy of such predictions is to look to history to assist us in identifying these forces. For this reason, this paper attempts to derive scenarios for the 1990s from a historical perspective.


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