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Abstract
Paul Johnson, the renowned historian, ends his book "A History of the Modern World"
with the following statement: "A prime discovery of modern times is that reason plays little
part in our affairs." This by way 'of introduction serves to remind us to be humble when
trying to predict the possible outcome of various forces which will have a major influence
on future events.
One way of increasing the accuracy of such predictions is to look to history to assist
us in identifying these forces. For this reason, this paper attempts to derive scenarios for
the 1990s from a historical perspective.