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Abstract
The size of the rural non-farm economy depends primarily on agricultural
demand. As farm income grows, it generates spillover growth in the rural nonfarm
economy, since rising farm income increases rural purchases of nonfarm
goods and services. The well-known debates on agricultural growth
linkages revolve around how powerful these demand linkages are (Mellor,
1975; Johnston and Kilby, 1975; Bell and Hazell, 1980). Yet agriculture
affects the supply of non-farm goods and services as well. Operating primarily
through the labour market, these supply-side linkages have been largely
overlooked in the growth linkage discussions. This is unfortunate, because a
focus on the labour market alters conclusions about the magnitude of farmnon-
farm linkages. It also highlights how agriculture affects not only the size
but also the composition of the rural non-farm economy.
This paper explores the relationship between agricultural growth, the rural
labour market, and the size and composition of rural non-farm activity. It
begins by reviewing what is known about the rural non-farm economy in
developing countries, followed by a review of empirical evidence on the
relationship between agriculture, labour markets and the transformation of the
rural non-farm economy. The paper then introduces a simple price-endogenous
model that projects the non-farm employment, wage and income effects
of alternative forms of agricultural growth. The model highlights the labour
market interactions that contribute importantly to a shifting composition of
rural non-farm activity.