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Abstract

This study identifies the main determinants of fluctuations of wheat, rice and beef prices in Uzbekistan. Our investigation is based on 2002-2010 weekly data from local markets in the Khorezm province. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with exogenous variables such as water inflow, oil prices, market exchange rate and international prices of imported commodities. The results show that the price fluctuations are more sensitive to respective international prices, market exchange rate and oil prices. For reducing the price fluctuations, the creation and development of storage capacities and processing facilities require more emphasis in national policies.

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