After a long debate between political bodies of the EU, the final decision about the shape of the CAP in the next programming period has been made. The initial proposal of the European Commission was very ambitious yet, after the announcement of its final version, there is a common belief that green requirements have been watered down. This paper presents the results of impact analysis based on the most recent proposition of CAP reform with a specific focus on “greening” of direct payments. It evaluates changes in the cropping structure and economic results of Polish farms from the perspective of the year 2020. For the analyses, the authors proposed an original farm typology using data taken from 10890 farms from FADN sampled in 2011. A farm optimization model with PMP technique was used to estimate potential effects of the reform for 218 types of Polish farms. The farm model results have been scaled-up to the country level. Results show that a majority of Polish farms are already complying with the new requirements. Adjustment of the remaining farms to the new requirements leads to only small changes in the cropping structure and has negligible impact on income generated by the Polish farm sector.


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