Genetic improvements in major US crops: the size and distribution of benefits

The distribution of welfare gains of genetic improvements in major US crops is estimated using a world agricultural trade model. Multi-market welfare estimates were 75% larger than estimates based on the price-exogenous 'change in revenue' method frequently used by plant breeders. Annual benefits of these genetic improvements range from US$ 400-600 million depending on the supply shift specification. Of this, 44-60% accrues to the US, 24-34% accrues to other developed countries. Developing and transitional economies capture 16-22% of the welfare gain. The global benefits of a one-time permanent increase in US yields are US$ 8.1 billion (discounted at 10%) and US$ 15.4 billion (discounted at 5%). Gains to consumers in developing and transitional economies range from US$ 6.1 billion ( 10% discount rate) to US$ 11.6 billion (5% discount rate). © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.