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Abstract
This paper addresses the prospects for technical change in the in·igated rice sector of Senegal, and measures ex-ante the
economic returns to recent research efforts. In 1994, three new rice varieties were released to farmers in the Senegal River
Valley (SRV), the major irrigated rice region in Senegal. The productivity advantage of the new varieties is based primarily
on early maturity, which permits double-cropping. (The seeds are also higher yielding than existing cultivars.)
We use a conventional [Akino and Hayami (1975), Am. J. Agric. Econ. 57, l-10] partial-equilibrium model adapted to the
Senegalese situation, to assess the social benefits of research and compare those to its costs in calculating the internal rate of
return (IRR). To account for uncertainty regarding the future values of model variables we use simulation which allows us to
generate a distribution of all possible outcomes of the IRR. We find that rice research is almost certain to have a very high
payoff over the 1995-2004 period. The expected value of the IRR is calculated to be 121% per year, with a 97.5% probability
that it lies above annual capital costs of 18%. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.