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Abstract

Estimates of pig loss from Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) determine changes in economic welfare. Hog and pork prices rise, so aggregate returns to hog growers increase. For a 3% annual pig loss, growers gain $1.2 billion annually, while for a 6% annual pig loss, the gain is $2.3 billion. Losses to infected growers are smaller than gains to uninfected growers. Annual returns to hog slaughter fall by $481 to $929 million. Retail value-added falls by $1.1 to $2.2 billion. Annual consumer surplus also declines from $300 to $600 million. The estimated net annual decrease for U.S. economic welfare from PEDv summed across all effects ranges from $900 million to $1.8 billion.

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