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Abstract

This paper analyses econometrically the impact of floods on the rate of adoption of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) of rice in Bangladesh. It uses a small model combining a modified logistic adoption function with a model of the process generating expectations errors by the farmers which encompasses most other expectation hypotheses. Using pooled cross-section and time-series data at the district level, the econometric results show a significant negative impact of expected flood damage on the HYV adoption rate of 'aman' rice. Moreover, it is shown that the adoption of HYV 'boro' rice is governed by essentially the same equation.

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