In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months
ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the
period 1982-1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational
expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased
(conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.
