Japan's import demand for both raw peanuts and processed peanut products was estimated using the Rotterdam model in order to determine the impact of an increase in the Japanese raw peanut quota on peanut imports from the USA and its competitors. The results indicate that if a larger import budget were allocated to raw peanut imports by Japan, most of the increase would be allocated to imports of Chinese raw peanuts. Furthermore, U.S. exports of peanut products could be affected if Japanese expenditures on peanut product imports change as a result of an increase in the quota for raw peanut imports. Thus, this study concludes that an increase in the Japanese import quota for raw peanuts provides only limited market opportunity for U.S. peanut exports, and China appears to benefit more than the USA from an increase in the Japanese raw peanut import quota. In contrast, the value added trade of peanut products could provide a better market opportunity for the U.S. peanut industry.


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