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Abstract
Since July 1993, the financial and risk effects of drought management strategies for farmers
have been the subject of a study by CARE (UNE)t NSW Agriculture and the WADA. In this
study the relative effectiveness of investing in different forms of reserves (including
lEDs/FMBs and feed) is being evaluated in a whole-farm stochastic budgeting framework. The
approach is to simulate the post-tax financial performancc of regionally-based farm models
under alternative investment scenarios over a 4-ycar sequence of random climatic events. The
parameters of the models and their functional relationships arc derived from historical records
and consensus group data. In this paper, some preliminary findings arc presented and discussed. These findings arc
interpreted in terms of both their farm management and policy implications. Attention is also
given to the strengths and weaknesses of the modelling technology and the benefits of the
consensus group approach. It is noted that benefits arc also derived simply from the process of
conducting drought research in that it encourages farmers and policy makers to carefully
consider the range of issues associated with drought management.