Issues in estimating economic effects of a disease outbreak in poultry: The case of Newcastle disease

Three issues in estimating producer losses from an outbreak of Newcastle disease in the poultry industry are discussed in this paper. First, annual producer losses from the short to intermediate run are estimated. Second, producer losses are estimated taking account of the substitution effects on other meat markets. Third, an annual aggregate model is used to estimate producer losses occurring during a part of a year in a part of the industry. The elasticity version of EMABA was used in estimating producer losses.