Climate Change Impacts on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of US Agricultural Land

How does current weather and climate change impact cropland use and allocation? Using 2010 ARMS data on several thousand central US farms, we estimate a two-step model that controls for expected relative prices, local soil characteristics, and self-selection into primary crop. We find that: (i). early-season and late-season temperatures and rainfall are most significant for selection into corn, while mid-season weather impacts soybean selection; (ii). sensitivity to nonlinear weather effects varies substantially within season and across crops; (iii). soil characteristics are important and should be accounted for in climate studies; and (iv). crop switching may occur under mild climate change.