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Abstract
This report presents an analysis of the structural determinants of living standards
and poverty in Mozambique, which is based on nationally-representative data from the
first national household living standards survey since the end of the civil war: the
Mozambique Inquérito Nacional aos Agregados Familiares Sobre As Condições de Vida
(MIAF), or National Household Survey on Living Conditions.
Poverty in Mozambique is predominantly a rural phenomenon and is pervasive, with
over two-thirds of the population falling below the poverty line. The degree of regional
variation of poverty within the country is striking. Poverty levels are highest in Sofala,
Tete, and Inhambane Provinces, where over 80 percent of the population lives below the
poverty line, and lowest in Maputo City (although, with a headcount of 48 percent,
poverty is still high in the capital city). The poverty estimates indicate that even though
Mozambique is recovering from the emergency situation of the civil war, and becoming
more self-reliant for its basic needs, there remains a great deal of structural poverty in the
country. Areas that stand out in particular are low levels of human capital, including low
educational levels and the poor health of most of the population; low productivity in the
agricultural sector, where most Mozambicans are employed; a weak physical
infrastructure and poor access to basic services, including potable water, health facilities,
transportation, communications, and markets; and high rates of fertility and corresponding
high dependency ratios.
The policy simulations that illustrate the impact that changes in the levels of
determinants of poverty have on poverty levels allow us to identify six possible elements
of a prospective poverty alleviation strategy for Mozambique. These include (1) increased
investment in education, (2) sustained economic growth, (3) a sectoral pattern of growth
favoring faster growth in the industrial and services sectors, (4) measures to raise
agricultural productivity, (5) improved rural infrastructure, and (6) reducing fertility and
dependency load within households. In conclusion, any meaningful poverty reduction strategy in Mozambique must give the highest priority to rural areas and must address
these macro-level and household-level determinants of poverty in its policy formulations.