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Abstract
This study focuses on the possible impact of the MFA phase-out on the world economy.
Starting from analyzing trends in world textile and apparel trade (T&A), the study found
that the developing countries were a growing factor in world T&A trade in recent
decades. Moreover, using trade data from 91 countries over 37 years, the empirically
investigate of the study indicates a strong positive relationship between trade in textile
and apparel and the standard of living. However, about 50 percent of industrial
countries’ markets are not available for developing countries and intra-EU trade still
accounts for half of total EU imports of T&A products. A more open and freer market in
the industrial countries is an important condition for developing countries to maintain
their growth momentum. The study further focuses on the possible impacts of the MFA
phase-out on the world T&A trade using an intertemporal, global general equilibrium
model. The study found that the MFA phase-out would enlarge world trade of T&A and
developing countries will further gain market share in world total exports. Almost all
countries, including both the developing countries restrained by the MFA quotas and free
from the MFA quotas, and the industrial countries, gain in term of social welfare post-
MFA in the model. Even though the developing countries currently free from the MFA
quota restrains may lose their market shares, as world T&A prices are lowered by
improving the efficiency of world T&A trade post-MFA, consumers are better off by
consuming cheap commodities.