Thailand’s Paddy Pledging Program has created an excessive domestic rice stockpile, causing budgetary and operational controversies in the country and uncertainties in the global rice market. This study looks at the deterministic and stochastic impacts on global rice trade, price, and net welfare of potential release of Thailand’s excess rice stocks into the international market. Results show that the potential rice trade supply shock results in global rice price declines and global rice consumption increases. While rice producers are worse off and rice consumers are better off, the overall net welfare changes are relatively moderate. The stochastic analysis generates confidence intervals of outcomes for the scenarios analyzed, providing a better understanding of the response dynamics of the global rice market.