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Abstract
This paper combines household survey and census data to construct a
provincial poverty map of Vietnam and evaluate the accuracy of
geographically targeted anti-poverty programs. First, the paper
estimates per capita expenditure as a function of selected household
and geographic characteristics using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standards
Survey. Next, these results are combined with data on the same
household characteristics from the 1999 Census to estimate the
incidence of poverty in each province. The results indicate that rural
poverty is concentrated in ten provinces in the Northern Uplands, two
provinces of the central Highlands, and two provinces in the Central
Coast. Finally, Receiver Operating Characteristics curves are used to
evaluate the effectiveness of geographic targeting. The results show
that the existing poor communes system excludes large numbers of
poor people, but there is potential to sharpen poverty targeting using a
small number of easy–to-measure household characteristics.