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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to develop a model of the U.S. fertilizer industry, containing equations representing the supply, demand, price, imports, and exports of fertilizer products (both aggregate and specific). The model will be empirically estimated, and parameter estimates used to analyze the structure of the fertilizer industry. A disaggregated model for the various nutrients and products, showing the linkages and interrelationships of the nutrient types in system, provides explicit analysis of the energy-cost fertilizer price ratios. A disaggregated model allows for greater accuracy in the measurement of explanatory variables and provides detailed information for explaining future trends in fertilizer consumption.

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