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Abstract
A long-standing problem in agricultural marketing is the
question of "optimal" marketing patterns for a seasonally
produced crop. When futures markets exist, agricultural economists
have often recommended their use to improve marketing
decisions, but farmer use of futures as an aid to marketing is not
common. This paper considers the potential benefits to upstate
New York farmers of hedging using Maine potato futures contracts.
Benefits are defined in terms of the mean and variance of
returns from alternative marketing strategies for potatoes. A
portfolio approach is implicit in the analysis which also relies, in
part, on the formulation of a simple price-forecasting model.