An Investigation into Growth, Instability and Role of Weather in Gujarat Agriculture: 1981-2011

The trend in instability in crop production in Gujarat has been analyzed for the 30-year period from 1980-81 to 2010-11 by following the method of ‘first differences’ or the moving period approach. The relation of instability with growth has also been examined. While investigating the growth performance at the district level, explicit account has been taken of the impact of rainfall on yield of crops/crop groups. The study has observed the decade of 2000s to be the period of high growth in the agricultural sector. But, despite accelerated agricultural growth in the 2000s’ decade, the influence of climatic variables is rather strong on the productivity levels of major crops cultivated in Gujarat. This has been seen even for the districts. The crop sector is marked by volatility in its growth. Research and policy support is needed for raising productivity in the rain-fed areas and also for insulating the crop sector from year-to-year variations in rainfall. The study has suggested that development of assured irrigation measures, ‘climatesmart’ agricultural practices, farmer-friendly insurance schemes and better weather forecasting would provide a sound shield to crop production in Gujarat against the vagaries of weather and long-term changes in climate.

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Journal Article
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Agricultural Economics Research Review, 26
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JEL Codes:
O12; O13; O47; Q10; Q54

 Record created 2017-04-01, last modified 2019-08-29

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