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Abstract
This report evaluates the United States and world corn and soybean markets for the 2013-2022
period using the Global Corn and Soybean Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on a
series of assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, weather
conditions, and technological change.
Corn-based ethanol production has influenced thenUnited States corn industry. As long
as the production of corn-based ethanol remains strong, corn prices will likely remain at a level
higher than the long term average. However, changes in the Federal fuel mandates could
significantly impact the world corn market. Under the current assumptions in the model, corn
price is expected to remain in a range between $4.30 and $6.50 per bushel over the 2013-2022
period.
Chinese soybean import is a leading factor influencing the world soybean market. China
currently imports 66% of soybean trade in the world market, and that is expected to increase to
about 70% by 2022. Major exporters will continue to be the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. However
both Brazil and Argentina could increase exports, while U.S. exports will remain at the current
level. Soybean prices are expected to remain near $12.00/bushel over the time period.