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Abstract

A newly developed model for the U.S. livestock industry provides quarterly forecasts of livestock prices and quantities and is used in impact analysis where I alternative scenarios are simulated and compared with the model's base forecast. The model incorporates both behavioral and biological equations to project beef, pork, and broiler quantities and prices used by outlook and situation I analysts. The model is estimated over the period 1970-81 using OLS (ordinary I least squares) estimation procedure. The model is also evaluated for the period 1982-84 to test its performance outside the data base. The model's performance I was acceptable given the conditions affecting the livestock sector during the periods studied.

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