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Abstract

This study identifies the main determinants of food price fluctuations in Uzbekistan with a focus on the Khorezm region. We investigate the price behavior of ten agricultural commodities using the weekly data collected from local markets in the Khorezm region during 2002-2010. For the analysis, we used Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with exogenous variables such as water inflow, oil prices and international prices of selected commodities imported to Uzbekistan such as rice and wheat, and market exchange rate. The results show two general patterns of agricultural price fluctuations...

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