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Abstract
Using a comprehensive dataset covering most derivatives trades
reported to US exchanges since 1954, we present distributional estimates
of the rate at which derivative trading volumes rise and fall.
Our results suggest that the lifecycle of cleared derivatives changed
fundamentally in the 2000’s. In that decade, derivatives with low trading
volumes moved to modest volumes with increased probability.
Prior to that, low volume contracts were more likely to remain stuck
at low volumes or be delisted altogether. This additional resilience
from low levels of trading meant that the expected trading volume
for a new cleared derivative after ten years of trading actually grew
between the 1990’s and 2000’s, despite the fact that a larger percentage
of contracts traded at low volume in any given year. These findings
suggest that trends in futures markets growth first noted in Silber
[1981] and Carlton [1984] and subsequently cited widely in literature
on derivatives innovation are less relevant than in the past. We also
discuss the relative influence of exchange, product type, and decade of
trading on volume patterns. We find that trading volumes varied more
decade to decade than from exchange to exchange or product type to
product type. Looking in detail at trading on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, an exchange that shifted abruptly to electronic trading,
we find evidence that the widespread adoption of electronic trading
was the driver behind the shift in the lifecycle of derivatives across US
exchanges in the last decade.