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Abstract

Pudrición del Cogollo (PC) is a major threat to the Colombian oil palm industry. This article develops a forestry model to obtain the optimal control strategy and optimal moment of replanting after PC attacks. Three cases are considered: a benchmark consisting of an oil palm field with no PC incidence, an identical oil palm field with PC present but no resistant variety with which to replant, and an identical oil palm field with PC present and a resistant variety with which to replant. We compare the optimal replanting period between the three scenarios and determine the optimal level of control in each period for the disease scenarios. The singular solution involves complete control of the disease, and in the absence of a resistant variety, the presence of the disease increases the rotation length. With these solutions, we then determine the value of developing a resistant variety. This value depends heavily on the age distribution of the current trees.

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