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Abstract

As the base price, grain prices have played considerably important role in China’s macro-economy and social price level. In this study we investigate the fluctuation characteristics of some main crops of China’s grain during the past two decades by using Structural Break Regime Switching Model. We find that China’s grain price growth has become more stable since 2004 with narrowing low-and high-growth regimes. The implementation of minimum grain purchase price policy, improvement of market structure and diversification of acquisitions which improve farmers’ overall earning expectation and stabilize food price, are the most important motivating factors.

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