A method for taking uncertainty into account when formulating aggregate agricultural
policies is applied to the feed grain program. The impact of alternative feed grain programs
on net farm income, Government payments, and feed grain production in the
Southeastern Coastal Plains is shown. A model is developed to explain planted acreages
of the major competing crops. The effects of alternative feed grain programs are evaluated
using Mqnte Carlo simulation to account for random variation. Confidence intervals are
placed on estimates of income and production resulting from selected feed grain programs.
