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Abstract

The shape and consequences of fortuitous events are subjects of much discussion in economics. Wheat yields on dryland are one member of such a set of events. Much research effort has been devoted to establishment of causal factors in observed yield variability and in attempts to derive probability models without waiting for causal understanding. The discussion that follows is another in the list of attempts of the latter kind. Thanks are due James S. Plaxico of Oklahoma State University, others of the GP-2 Technical Committee, and members of the Farm Economics Division, Economic Research Service staff in Washington, D.C., who read the manuscript and suggested improvements.

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